PTH Meridian — AMuN Decision Science

Decisions have consequences.

Most decisions look simple until the consequences arrive. AMuN maps the second and third order consequences of any decision before you make it — surfacing what you cannot see until it is too late to change.

GitHub ↗
// Consequence chain — Alberta data centre water problem
Decision
Build hyperscale data centres in water-stressed southern Alberta
1st order — direct
Millions of gallons per day drawn from already over-allocated river systems fed by glaciers that have lost ~70% of their volume since 1900 (NRCan data)
2nd order — consequence of consequence
Agricultural water allocation reduced — crop yields fall in drought years — UBC study confirms glacier retreat will affect 1 in 4 Albertans' water supply
3rd order — the surprise
Food prices rise — rural communities stressed — political pressure mounts — project approval reversed after billions already invested
⚠ RESEARCH TOOL · All likelihood estimates in this tool are expressed as ranges only and represent structured assessments grounded in publicly available official data — not precise predictions, guarantees or professional advice of any kind. Statistics Canada, Natural Resources Canada and Canada Energy Regulator public records inform the context. Ranges are qualitative judgments, not actuarial calculations. Data subject to change. PTH Meridian does not guarantee any outcome.
Make the invisible visible.

Every decision has consequences that ripple outward — first order effects that are obvious, second order effects that are predictable if you look, third order effects that surprise everyone. Most decisions are made looking only at the first order.

AMuN maps all three before the decision is final. One question starts it: what decision are you trying to make? Everything else follows from that.

Open source. Available now. github.com/PTHMeridian/AMuN

Consequence Chain Mapping
Trace ripple effects across time and systems. First, second and third order effects before they become irreversible.
Multi-Order Effects
Most tools show what happens next. AMuN shows what happens because of what happens next.
System Boundary Detection
Decisions cross boundaries between economic, environmental, social and political systems. AMuN traces across all of them.
Human vs AI Assessment
Set your own likelihood estimate and compare it against AI-generated research ranges. See where you and the data agree — and where you diverge.
Time Horizon Modeling
What happens in a year vs a decade vs what becomes irreversible — separated and made visible.
02

Every decision. Every scale.

Consequence mapping applies wherever decisions have consequences that are not immediately visible. Which is everywhere.

// Policy
Government Decisions

Infrastructure investment, energy policy, healthcare reform, trade agreements — decisions affecting millions across decades. AMuN maps consequences before commitments are made and billions are spent.

// Business
Strategic Planning

Market entry, supply chain decisions, technology investment — choices that look straightforward often have regulatory, reputational and economic consequences that arrive years later.

// Energy
Infrastructure Siting

Where to build a data centre. Whether to approve a pipeline. How to design a national energy transition. These decisions have water, climate, economic and community consequences that standard analysis misses.

// Health
Health Policy

Drug approval, treatment protocol changes, healthcare system reforms — decisions with economic, behavioural and equity consequences that compound over years and affect populations unevenly.

// Individual
Personal Decisions

Career changes, financial decisions, educational paths — AMuN's consequence mapping applies at every scale. The question is always the same: what does this decision actually do?

// Reconciliation
Indigenous Relations

Resource development on Indigenous territories, treaty implementation, energy infrastructure approvals — decisions with profound historical and community consequences that require full visibility before proceeding.

Education is not intelligence.

The people who designed Canadian residential school policy were educated, credentialed and certain of their conclusions. They were wrong — not because they lacked information but because they never examined their foundational assumptions. They optimised for a goal that was itself wrong.

AMuN does not tell you what goal to have. It shows you what the decision actually does — across all the systems it touches, over all the time horizons that matter — so that the assumptions are visible rather than hidden.

Never confuse education with intelligence. You can have a PhD and still be an idiot.
— Richard Feynman
01
No Hidden Complexity
Every consequence traceable to its source. No unexplained scores. No black boxes.
02
Transparent By Design
All likelihood estimates shown as ranges, not precise numbers. Official data sources cited. Limitations stated clearly. Always.
03
Neutral On Outcomes
AMuN does not tell you what to decide. It maps what will happen if you do. The judgment is yours. The information is complete.
04
Open Source
Every assumption in the model is visible and challengeable. The tool that surfaces hidden assumptions cannot itself be a black box.
05
Causation Not Correlation
Knowing that two things happen together is not knowing why one causes the other. Why is what changes decisions.
Use AMuN. Build with AMuN.

AMuN is open source and available now. Use it, integrate it or contribute to its development on GitHub.